Galvanized follows hot-rolled with a lag, the mills aren’t discounting, and sheet metal labor keeps getting more expensive. Here is how mechanical contractors can hold their number on the next duct package.
Galvanized is still catching up to hot-rolled
Hot-rolled coil hit its highest level in more than four years in August and held around $1,200 per short ton into September. Galvanized — the coil your duct is actually cut from — prices at a premium over hot-rolled and trails it, so the August move is still working its way into duct quotes this fall.
The mills have the leverage. The share of buyers finding a mill willing to negotiate is the lowest in almost five years, lead times are at multi-year highs, and fall outages will pull more than a million tons off the market through December. Early 2027 contract talk is $1,100–$1,175 a ton, against about $800 on 2026 contracts.
Before you sign the next duct subcontract
- Get an escalation clause in writing, tied to a published steel index with a base date. ConsensusDocs 200.1 is a workable start.
- Carve out tariffs. A tariff change after bid date is a change in law, not your pricing error.
- Release the tonnage first — plenums, coil casings and large mains, ahead of branch work.
- Price specialty metal separately. Stainless and aluminum exhaust and black-iron grease duct run on their own lead times and price curves.
A duct price quoted in August and bought in November carries every dollar the coil moves in between. Shorten that gap or get paid for it.
Where the duct tonnage is going
National construction spending is down 3.5% year to date, and nonresidential work outside data centers fell to its lowest level since September 2023. The bright spot for sheet metal is the mix: Dodge’s planning index shows schools, public buildings and recreation projects strengthening while data center planning cools. That is ducted, air-side-heavy work — air handlers, VAV distribution, exhaust — and most of it is public bid work on the Gulf Coast.
Fire and smoke dampers: where the sheet metal fails inspection
The damper comes from the manufacturer. Whether it passes depends on the sleeve, the attachment and the access — all sheet metal scope.
- Install to the listing, not to shop habit. Sleeve gauge, retaining angles, clearance and breakaway connections come from the manufacturer’s UL 555 / 555S instructions. Outside the listing it is a failed damper even if it closes.
- Static vs. dynamic. If fans run during a fire, fire dampers must be dynamic-rated — check the schedule before release.
- Access and labels. The IMC requires service access and a permanent label with half-inch letters. Coordinate duct access doors with ceiling access before the hard lid goes up.
- Combination dampers. Settle who furnishes the duct detector, who powers the actuator and who wires it to fire alarm before buyout, not at the fire marshal’s test.
Also in this issue
- R-410A update — EPA finalized removal of the January 1, 2026 install deadline for pre-2025 residential and light commercial equipment. R-410A VRF still faces a January 1, 2027 install deadline.
- Sheet metal labor watch — construction wages rose 5.2% year over year in July, and the Gulf Coast build-out pulls sheet metal journeymen first.
- Build the package to survive the price — release by area, set pressure class by system segment, standardize fittings.