National nonresidential construction is in its longest soft stretch in three decades — and Louisiana is one of the few states running the other direction. Here is what the numbers mean for your next duct package.
A split market: soft nationally, busy on the Gulf Coast
U.S. nonresidential building spending fell roughly 7% in nominal dollars through the first five months of 2026. In July, the AIA Consensus Construction Forecast Panel cut its 2026 outlook from 1.0% growth to a 0.3% decline while raising 2027 to 3.0%. The AIA/Deltek Architecture Billings Index scored 47.3 in June — its 41st month below the 50 breakeven, the longest downturn in the index’s thirty-plus year history.
Louisiana is on the right side of that split. Nonresidential starts in the state are forecast up 26.9% year over year even with office work excluded, with gains across seven of eight sectors. The state accounts for roughly 61% of total U.S. LNG exports and is second only to Texas in planned natural gas pipeline capacity — 8.4 Bcf/d of additions through 2027.
What it means for you: work is available here, but it is being fought over on price by contractors who have run out of work elsewhere. Margin comes from schedule performance and shop productivity, not from a soft bid market.
Coil pricing: protect your quote windows
The U.S. Midwest hot-rolled coil benchmark closed at roughly $1,200 per ton on August 7, up about 2.9% over the previous month and roughly 43.7% above the same point last year. Galvanized carries a premium over hot-rolled and tends to follow it with a lag, so the increase you are reading about today is largely still working its way into your duct pricing.
Five things worth doing before your next duct buyout:
- Fix pressure class and seal class in writing before you price. A blanket 2 in. w.g. / Seal Class A requirement across an entire system drives gauge, reinforcement and sealing labor on branch runs that never needed it.
- Confirm your quote validity period and put it in your proposal to the GC. If your fabricator holds pricing for 30 days and your GC expects 90, you own 60 days of commodity risk for free.
- Release long-lead and high-material scope early. Locking quantities converts an open commodity position into a fixed cost.
- Read the escalation and delay language in the subcontract before you sign it.
- Price alternates honestly. Round and spiral generally deliver equivalent capacity with less metal and lower leakage when the route has the clearance.
A2L refrigerants: the part that lands on the sheet metal
Most A2L coverage focuses on refrigerant and equipment. The provisions that reach the duct scope get less attention, and they are showing up in submittal reviews and inspections now.
A2L equipment is built around leak mitigation, not just a refrigerant swap. Systems ship with refrigerant detection and a mitigation sequence that runs the indoor blower to dilute a leak — and that sequence assumes an air path. Motorized and zone dampers must be able to open, or fail open, in mitigation mode. Plenum, coil connection and return configurations have to match what the OEM’s listing assumes. Service and sensor access has to be left in the ductwork and in the ceiling, not designed out during coordination.
Catch the mitigation airflow requirement in coordination, not at final inspection. Reworking a plenum and a damper sequence after ceilings are closed is an expensive way to learn a code section.
Also in this issue
- Gulf South project watch — LNG export, gas transmission, and the healthcare, education and municipal work that follows industrial payrolls.
- Don’t let fabrication become the schedule bottleneck — why the hard 10% of a job should go to the shop first.
- Specify to SMACNA, then hold the line — how pressure class, seal class and leakage testing scope drive most of the cost.